Britain's leading thinker on the future has revealed some truly revelatory predictions about our immediate future. The mindboggling crystal ball-like analysis of the 21st century is, when taken at face value, shocking, disturbing and exciting.
The thinker - Ian Pearson, head of futurology at BT - has predicted that aeroplanes will be controlled by highly advanced computers that will have AI that mimicks human fear. He predicts that this could be programmed so that the computer would be more fearful of crashing than any of the plane passengers. Reason enough, I think, for such programming to exist, but, if a computer is approaching, or at, human level intelligence, who is to say it is right to programme such an entity to be living in a constant state of fear? And if it could be programmed to be fearful, might it not also be in danger of feeling panic?
Pearson's most startling pronouncement is that, by 2050, immortality will be effectively achieved by way of people uploading their minds into supercomputers. Of course, to the layman, this probably sounds absolutely ridiculous, but those of us that have more understanding of this know that it is an extremely probable scenario.
I am sure there will be plenty of people wanting to continue on with their lives, and discard their old, withering bodies for the freedom of an existence in a virtual world, or perhaps a way of returning to the real world through, say, cloning of their original body and brain transplantation. Or perhaps it will be possible at some stage to download your mind into a robot or android with human-like characteristics?
Pearson says that mind immortality in 2050 will initially only be available to the rich, but that by 2075-2080 it should have become a routine procedure and might well be available to all. Crikey!
Pearson's track record in his career throws weight behind his predictions. He graduated in applied mathematics and theoretical physics, spent 4 years working on missile design and has spent the past 20 years working optical networks, broadband netwrok evolution and cybernetic's in BT's laboratories. Pearson describes his predictions for the future as 'very exciting' and 'very scary'.
Pearson says that youngsters today may never have to die and points to the rapid advances in computer power as demonstrated last week by the Sony statement on the release of their Playstation 3.
Playstation 3 is 35 times more powerful than previous games consoles. In fact, Playstation 3 has 1 per cent of the power of the human brain. Pearson also predicts that Playstation 5 will probably be as powerful as the human brain.
And it doesn't stop there - Pearson says that the next milestone in technology will be the development of a supercomputer that has some form of 'consciousness'. He says that more and more technologists are coming round to the opinion that conscious machines are a prefectly viable and achievable prospect. In fact, Pearson says he believes it will be possible to engineer a concious computer with superhuman level intelligence before 2020.
Pearson thinks that such a creation would have 'emotions'. He suggests that one immediate advantage might be the outsourcing of call centres not to India but to cyberpsace where AI entities will be able to answer calls and deal with customers immediately, thereby negating long, frustrating call waits for customers.
Perhaps the most bizarre suggestion from Pearson is the idea of 'talking yoghurts'. Apparently, it is now possible to use DNA to make electronic circuits so, by about 2020-2025, you could have 'smart yoghurts' that have a stack of electronics in every single bacterium. Hmmm. As clever as this all sounds, I'm not sure the 'talking yoghurts' idea will catch on.
Pearson also suggests that before any of this happens, we will have superchips that will mean we will be able to have such things as polymer video tattoes that you can impregnate onto your skin and will last for several days. You might, for example, want to connect these up to video cameras or your mobile phone.
This is already closer than we might imagine, as Philips are already developing the world's first rollable display which is a millimetre thick, has a 12.5 cm screen and can be wrapped around an arm. The screens will begin production in about 2 years from now.
Pearson also predicts stackable chips that will effectively wipe out the risk of viruses and says that by 2020 'virtual worlds' will have become the norm, offering 3D virtual environments that will be almost indistinguishable from the real thing, with nervous system hook-ups to mimic the sensations.
One thing is for certain, we may very well be living at one of the most pivotal and exciting times in human history and the advances that will be made over the next 50 years will be mindboggling.
Of course, much of this predicting dovetails neatly into the theory of Ving's Singularity, a point whereby a civilisations technology reaches a point of almost limitless exponential growth or rather, a technological 'event horizon'. Whether a technological singularity is actually possible is still speculative but it's still a fascinating area of thought.
Source: Observer
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